The Dream Ticket

The media, as well as the talking heads that they prop up, have made a deal of exceptionally loud noise about a unity ticket in which Obama makes his chief rival, Hillary Clinton, his running mate for the fall. This so called “dream ticket” scenario is a very, very bad idea.

If Obama does choose Senator Clinton, the move does not bolster him in any state where A) he lost to Clinton and is polling poorly against John McCain, or B) he won, but is polling poorly against McCain. There is no sustentative polling data at the time of this writing that suggests otherwise.

Further, in the general election, the role of VP candidate is to campaign for the person on the top of the ticket and say why that person should be president. That role would be kind of hard for Clinton, when she and her husband just spend the past year saying why he isn’t qualified, and why someone with experience, Senator McCain, would be a better choice for the voters.

There is no doubt that, at this very moment, the RNC is readying a backlog of sound bites from both Hillary Clinton and the former President, and they’re preparing to unleash them in print, radio, and television ads in states like Michigan and Ohio, two must wins for Democrats to take back the White House.

The idea of Senator Clinton being on the Democratic ended when her campaign ended. Having her on the ticket would hurt, not help Obama, it doesn’t help him win any state, and it provides fodder for Republicans.

Wesley Clark

Those who know that Hillary cannot be Obama’s VP have suggest that the best way to unite the party is for Barack Obama to nominate a prominent Clinton supporter for the job, which is actually a good idea. One of the names often suggested are Gen. Wesley Clark.

Wes Clark is still popular among Democrats. The four star general became something of a star himself when he launched his populist 2004 White House bid. The trouble is that the Arkansas native has been virtually absent from mainstream politics ever since.

Though Clark can be an effective campaigner for Obama and close his creditability gap when it comes to foreign policy, he doesn’t do something that a VP needs to do, which is to bring a region or a state to the table.

If it can be argued that Clark was ever deep into politics, then he has surely been out of politics too long to be able to provide any regional benefit to Democrats come November. Having him on the ticket would only reassure democratic voters who are likely to support Obama anyways, and not bring anyone new to the table.

Basically, he would be about as effective as John Edwards was for Kerry. For historical reference, Kerry lost Edwards’ home state of North Carolina.

A Short List that Makes Sense

An effective shortlist of candidates will provide Obama with a regional advantage in the Midwestern states, where the electoral vote rewards are high, where voters are blue collar, hardworking, and middle class, in other words, the core of the Democratic Party.

The closest states are Ohio, (with its 20 electoral votes), Michigan (17), Iowa (7), Wisconsin (10), Missouri (11), and Indiana (also 11). These states represent must win territory for Obama in the fall. A loss of Ohio and Michigan spells almost certain defeat.

The best kind of a candidate to put on the ticket to reach out to voters in these states is a former or current democratic Governor. Such a candidate has already made a connection with his constituents, and the message has already been well received. This is the kind of proven leadership that wins elections.

Given the requisite criteria, Barack Obama has several good choices. This is what his short list may resemble, and it is ordered from top to bottom, according to which candidates will be the most effective in helping him achieve a win:

1.      Ted Strickland – Strickland is the Governor of Ohio. With 20 electoral votes, and a history of deciding national elections, as well as close polling numbers, Ohio is going to ground zero for the remainder of Election 2008, as both sides converge upon it. Had Al Gore won here in 2000, then we would have never heard of the Florida controversy.

2.      Ed Rendell – A prominent Clinton supporter, Rendell’s day job is being the Governor of Pennsylvania. Though polls show that Obama should have little difficulty in defeating McCain here, Rendell can make a connection with voters in places like Michigan and neighboring Ohio.

3.      Evan Bayh – Senator Bayh is popular Democrat from Indiana, a state that hasn’t voted a Democrat into the White House since John F. Kennedy. During his time as Governor, he passed one of the state’s largest tax cuts in history. He would be a particular persona for Ohioans and Michiganites alike, where their industrial economies are some of the worst in the country.  

4.      Brad Henry – He’s the term limited Governor of Oklahoma, where he’s only the second Democrat to serve two terms as Governor. In one of the redest of red states, he won his second term with over 66% of the vote. He’s already stated that he doesn’t plan to run for US Senate, so he has nothing to lose by accepting the VP nomination. Obama, on the other hand, doesn’t have as much to gain as he would with a Midwesterner, but Henry should be able to deliver all 7 of Oklahoma’s electoral votes, and bolster the campaign in the “second front,” which is the Southwest, and take the edge off of McCain’s home field advantage. Henry could be particularly helpful in courting voters in New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada. He could put the pressure on McCain in Texas, forcing Republicans to campaign and spend money unnecessarily, and might exhibit cross appeal to Missourians and beyond.

Ted Strickland, Ed Rendell, and Evan Bayh, in that order, represent Barack Obama’s best chances of winning the White House. All three enjoy high approval ratings, have Republican-like support among white males, and can win over conservatives, moderates, and independents.

Of the three, Senator Bayh is the least likely to accept a position on the ticket. Unlike Obama, it is far from a surefire thing that his seat will be filled by another Democrat. Senate Democrats only hold a one seat majority, and that may soon be reduced by a likely Lieberman defection. Despite odds that Democrats will make gains in the Senate this fall, both the leadership and Bayh may choose to hedge their bets.

Moving Down the List…

In a firestorm of speculation, a slew of names have been mentioned for this particular job, some of them are partially credible, such others are laughable.

Beginning with the somewhat credible:

5.      Joe Manchin – He’s a Governor from one of those states where Hillary Clinton would beat John McCain, but Obama polls far behind. That state is West Virginia. With a mere five electoral votes, winning there isn’t much of a prize. But if Gov. Manchin can translate his 74% approval rating to courting votes in nearby Ohio, Kentucky, and Virginia, then the former football player could be a valuable asset.

6.      Tim Kaine – The popular Governor of the now “purple” state Virginia, and an early Obama supporter, Kaine could easily deliver all of the state’s 13 electoral votes for Obama, and he would have some wide reaching appeal. The problem is that such appeal might not reach the Midwest, or even nearby Kentucky and West Virginia.  

7.      Phil Bredesen – The Tennessee Governor has high approval ratings and conservative street cred for his support of the ban on “partial birth abortion.” The problem is that Tennessee and its 11 electoral votes aren’t worth the fight. McCain would be able to force an Obama/Bredesen campaign into spending a lot of money here when they should win it for free. For the record, Al Gore lost here in 2000, and it’s his home state; Kerry lost by eight points in 2004.

And the Rest…

For those who know politics, some of the other names suggest can be well laughed off, though they may sound good at first thought. These include Colorado Governor Bill Ritter, who only assumed office a few days after the Iowa caucuses. He still has a lot of work to do at his current job. Steve Beshear, Governor of Kentucky, is in the same boat, except that he also has perception problems within his own state. While his candidacy may be fun to think about, it’s just not practical.

Former presidential candidate and current Governor of New Mexico Bill Richardson’s name has often been brought up as a running mate who can bring Hispanics to the table and open up a strong second front in the Southwest. However, his ties to the Clintons and public feuding with the former President are a liability. What’s more is that there are a number of Americans who are reluctant to vote for a African American. That number is higher when the VP candidate is also not Caucasian.

Governor of Arizona, Janet Napolitano is perhaps the most implausible of all. As the governor of the state where the Republican nominee hails from, she has absolutely no chance of doing anything other being a drag on the ticket, no matter how high her popularity is in her own state. Also, as with Richardson, having a joint African American/Woman ticket, no matter who the running mate is, (Senator Claire McCaskill comes to mind), might make some types of folks less like to vote.

Even the names of three prominent Senators have been thrown around, they are Wisconsin extremely popular Russ Feingold, the famous co-sponsor of the McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Reform bill, and former candidates Joe Biden of Delaware, and the retiring Chris Dodd of Connecticut. These names are speculative at best. Dodd brings little to the ticket but liberalism, which Obama has plenty of; Biden offers legitimacy on subjects such as Iraq, terrorism, and Pakistan, but no electoral votes; and pundits probably mention Feingold just for fun. Sure, he’d do well in Wisconsin, but further than that? Doubtful.

Who Will Obama Pick?

In the end, it may turn out that Barack Obama picks none of the candidates suggested here, either because he felt that someone else could better fill that role, because he perceived that having Hillary Clinton as a close ally is better than having her out on her own, or because the best choices aren’t always willing to do the job.

Within the coming weeks, the Obama camp will make an announcement, and it will send the campaign into overdrive. A new level will be achieved as McCain and Obama quarrel over who has the better VP, and the best running mate with the broadest appeal, may win the election. Indeed, 2008 is a year when the “bottom of the ticket” may outweigh the top.